DXY Ticks Up to 102.00 as Yields Rise and Euro, Kiwi Lead Majors Lower

The Dollar Index sits at 102.00, up 0.32% in a session that is still open — this is roughly a 14:00 New York print, about three hours ahead of today's 17:00 close, so the move is not close-to-close. The firmer dollar has come alongside rising US Treasury yields across the curve and a steady-to-higher equity tape: the S&P 500 is up 0.63% to 7775.00, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.83%, and the Dow up 0.13%, while the VIX ticked up 1.18% to 15.49. Among the majors, the euro and New Zealand dollar are the session's weakest, down 0.44% and 0.41% respectively, while the index itself remains underpinned by the yield move.

US yields rose modestly across the curve: the 10-year added 5.7bp to 5.334%, the 30-year 6.1bp to 5.691%, the 5-year 3.4bp to 5.089%, and the 3-month 2.7bp to 4.020%, with the 20+ Year Treasury ETF down 0.96% to 76.71. The moves follow the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 — the first hike since 2023 — with most officials projecting at least one more hike this year; the live question remains further tightening, not cuts. Markets have trimmed the odds of an October hike and now lean toward a hold after September payrolls rose just 29,000 versus a 90,000 forecast. FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting are due Wednesday, October 7, a focal point for the week.

EUR/USD trades at 1.1203, down 0.44% today and extending Monday's fall to about 1.1204 (-0.46%) as France's public debt hit a record 119% of GDP ahead of a 2027 budget with EUR54bn of cuts, compounded by Spain's new November 29 snap election. GBP/USD is at 1.3214, down 0.19%, extending Monday's 0.2% slip as the UK-US rate differential narrows and markets lean toward an October Fed hold. USD/JPY is at 158.09, up 0.16%, building on Monday's firming toward 158.00-158.19 after PM Takaichi's address pledging to 'carefully manage' debt issuance. USD/CAD sits at 1.4256, up 0.05%, little changed after Monday's close near 1.4255 and a month-long slide in the loonie.

USD/CAD trades at 1.4256, up 0.05% in today's still-open session, holding near the 12-week highs reached after a 3.19% loonie slide over the trailing month. The backdrop is oil and growth: WTI is down 1.06% to $90.22 and Brent down 1.50% to $100.72 today, adding to Monday's pullback, against stalled Canadian domestic growth and renewed US-Canada trade friction. With CPI having run near 3% largely on higher fuel costs, the question for the Bank of Canada is how far it can look through oil-driven inflation while the underlying pace stays contained. Next up: Statistics Canada's August trade balance at 8:30am ET, forecast near a C$1.5 billion surplus versus C$0.8 billion prior; the BoC's next decision is October 28, with markets leaning toward a hold at 2.25%.

Today's calendar: German factory orders m/m at 17:00 (forecast -0.9% vs 2.5% previous), BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at 17:35 (flagged high impact), and French industrial production and budget balance follow at 17:45. Swiss unemployment (forecast 3.1%, unchanged) lands at 18:00, then UK construction PMI (forecast 45.0 vs 44.3 previous) and MPC member Mann speak at 19:30, alongside UK housing equity withdrawal data. Eurozone retail sales m/m (forecast 0.2% vs -0.6% previous) print at 20:00. Late session brings US ADP weekly employment change at 23:15-23:16, then Canadian trade balance (forecast 1.5B vs 0.8B previous) and the US trade balance (forecast -100.8B vs -88.6B previous) both at 23:30.