Dollar Ticks Higher on Rising Yields as Jackson Hole Looms

The Dollar Index sits at 99.0540, up 0.24% in a session still open — it's 04:00 in Sydney, roughly 14:00 in New York, three hours before the 17:00 close, so today's move can still shift. The dollar is broadly firmer: up 0.49% against the Swiss franc, 0.40% against sterling, 0.24% against the Canadian dollar, 0.19% against the euro, and 0.12% against the yen. Equities are little changed — the S&P 500 is flat (-0.01%) at 7682.15, the Dow off 0.22%, the Nasdaq off 0.16% — and the VIX has eased 0.39% to 15.39. Gold has fallen 1.31% to 4597.81 while WTI crude has risen 1.80% to 82.545.

US Treasury yields firmed across most of the curve: the 5-year added 3.4bp to 4.385%, the 10-year rose 2.7bp to 4.666%, and the 30-year edged up 1.3bp to 5.187%, while the 3-month bill slipped 1.2bp to 3.693%. These are modest moves, not a large repricing. The Fed funds target remains 3.50-3.75%, and the live policy question is whether the Fed hikes rather than cuts. A Financial Times headline — 'Scott Bessent's bond intervention puts US Treasury on collision course with Fed' — is one to watch rather than a confirmed policy shift here. Today's US calendar carries weekly jobless claims (208K forecast vs. 206K previous), flagged as dollar-relevant ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote.

EUR/USD trades 1.1653, down 0.19% today after Wednesday's pullback, which desk notes tied to falling oil prices in the prior session and the ECB rate outlook. GBP/USD is 1.3594, down 0.40%, extending Wednesday's slide after sterling failed at resistance near 1.3660 on hotter US PCE inflation. USD/JPY is 159.39, up 0.12%; the yen had firmed to around 159 in the prior session as oil fell, and BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks in Saitama today. USD/CAD is 1.3875, up 0.24%, extending its mid-August climb amid the US-Canada tariff standoff.

USD/CAD trades 1.3875, up 0.24% today, extending Wednesday's rise (also about 0.27% per Trading Economics) and the pair's broader mid-August climb from a three-month low near 1.376 on August 21, when Canada-US trade talks fell. The US imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20bn of Canadian goods from August 21-22; Canada countered with retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on about $20bn of US imports, and PM Mark Carney has pledged to match US tariffs dollar for dollar from September 8, calling the US move 'a miscalculation.' Oil is a cross-current: WTI fell in Wednesday's session but is up 1.80% to 82.545 in today's still-open session. No Bank of Canada decision falls this week (rate held at 2.25% since July 15). Today's calendar carries Canada's current account, forecast at 3.5B versus last period's -7.2B.

Today's calendar: EUR M3 money supply (forecast 3.5% y/y vs. 3.3% previous) and private loans (2.9% vs. 3.0%) at 18:00, plus ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 21:30. CAD current account at 22:30 (forecast 3.5B vs. -7.2B previous). USD releases at 22:30: unemployment claims (208K forecast vs. 206K previous), goods trade balance (-100.8B forecast vs. -101.5B previous), and prelim wholesale inventories (0.2% forecast, matching the previous reading). CNY CB Leading Index follows at 23:00. Looking ahead to tomorrow (Sydney time): US natural gas storage, the Jackson Hole Symposium opening, and Japan's Tokyo core CPI and unemployment rate.