Dollar Firms to 100.58 as Hormuz Oil Spike Offsets Falling Yields

The US Dollar Index closed Friday, July 17 at 100.58, up 0.06% on the session (NY-close basis; it's now Saturday morning in Sydney). The move came alongside a broader risk-off tone: the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.57%, the VIX jumped 10.35% to 19.09, and gold rose 0.84% to $4,010.09 while silver added 0.76% to $55.93 — safe-haven demand spreading across the dollar and precious metals together. The backdrop was the escalating US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed WTI crude up 3.64% and Brent up 3.66%. Within FX the dollar was mixed across majors — one desk note flagged it as strongest versus the pound and the Aussie to start the North American session.

US yields eased modestly on the session: the 10-year fell 2.4bp to 4.545%, the 30-year fell 3.2bp to 5.066%, and the 5-year slipped 0.9bp to 4.273%, while the 3-month bill ticked up 0.8bp to 3.705%. These are small moves, not a repricing. The Fed funds target remains 3.50-3.75%, and the live 2026 policy question is whether the Fed hikes further, not whether it cuts. Recent US data have leaned firm: housing starts hit 1.427 million versus a 1.310 million estimate, import prices rose 0.3% against a forecast -0.7% decline, and preliminary UMich consumer sentiment came in at 54.4 versus 51.0 expected. Industrial production undershot slightly, up 0.1% against a 0.2% forecast.

EUR/USD eased 0.07% to 1.1434, staying capped as Brent's push higher revived inflation fears and eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May. GBP/USD fell 0.20% to 1.3453, retracing part of a rally that had taken it toward $1.356, as oil-driven safe-haven dollar demand outweighed the domestic backdrop. USD/JPY rose 0.05% to 162.44, extending a drift toward multi-year lows with no sign of support action from Tokyo. USD/CAD eased 0.19% to 1.4015, near a one-month low as crude's rise lifted the Canadian dollar (details below).

USD/CAD eased 26 pips (-0.19%) Friday, NY-close basis, from 1.40414 to 1.40152 — near a one-month low, with FXStreet's headline noting the pair eyeing a second weekly loss. The drivers are contested: FXStreet ties the move to CAD strength from a crude spike (WTI up nearly 12% on the week) as US-Iran fighting disrupts Hormuz shipping; Trading Economics instead credits a relatively hawkish Bank of Canada hold plus a softer dollar after weak US producer-price data, and reads oil as easing on diplomacy signs — the two cited sources disagree on oil's direction. What's not contested: the BoC held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15 for a sixth straight meeting, striking a relatively hawkish tone and lifting its 2026 inflation projection to 2.5% from 2.3% on gasoline-driven CPI. CAD is up 0.83% over the trailing month, still down 2.20% year-on-year. Canada's June CPI lands Monday, July 20.

Today's economic calendar returned no scheduled events; the data source flagged a possible delay, so treat this as a data gap rather than a quiet calendar. Markets are closed for the weekend, with the next session opening Monday, July 20. That session brings Canada's June CPI (May was 3.2% y/y) and Japan's Marine Day holiday, closing Tokyo cash markets. Tuesday, July 21 adds the UK's ONS Labour Market Overview for June, Japan's June trade balance and, per one cited calendar whose date isn't independently verified, the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey. UK CPI for June follows Wednesday, July 22 at 07:00, and the ECB's rate decision is due Thursday, July 23 at 13:45 CET.