NFP miss at 57,000 weighs on the dollar into Monday's open

The DXY feed is unavailable today, so the major pairs are the proxy. EUR/USD sits at 1.1437, GBP/USD at 1.3348, and USD/JPY at 161.41 — all showing zero net change from Friday's thin close. Friday July 3 was the observed Independence Day closure for US equity and bond markets; FX traded but in narrow, low-volume conditions. The week's fundamental driver landed the day before: June nonfarm payrolls printed 57,000 against a consensus near 115,000, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000. That miss did the dollar-softening work last week. The ISM Services PMI, rescheduled from Thursday to Monday due to the holiday, is due at 10:00am US Eastern — just after midnight tonight, Sydney time — and has not yet been released.

With Friday's Independence Day observance shutting US bond markets, the most recent yield closes are Thursday's, moving against Wednesday's prior close: the 3-month fell 3.2bp to 3.668%; the 5-year was near flat at 4.230% (-0.2bp); the 10-year added 1.0bp to 4.485%; the 30-year rose 1.9bp to 4.985%. Desk notes place the 2-year roughly 3.5bp lower at 4.13% on Thursday after the payrolls miss (unverified — no direct 2-year feed). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at Sintra on July 1, indicated inflation expectations have eased and signalled no urgency to hike, without committing to a specific July path. FOMC member Waller is due to speak later today, Sydney time (around midday US Eastern) — no content is available yet. The Fed funds target stands at 3.50–3.75%, with markets still pricing some probability of a hike rather than cuts.

EUR/USD at 1.1437, flat, near the week's high of 1.14545 reached in Friday's thin session; Eurozone retail sales and Sentix confidence are on today's calendar. GBP/USD at 1.3348, flat, holding last week's NFP-driven gains; UK Construction PMI is due today, with the previous print at 38.2 for May. USD/JPY at 161.41, flat, below the roughly 162.84 level set earlier in the week; Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on July 3 reiterated Tokyo's readiness to act on the yen. USD/CAD at 1.4204, flat, with no Friday session to report; USMCA uncertainty and OPEC+-driven soft crude keep the pair range-bound near 1.4200.

USD/CAD sits at 1.4204, flat — there is no Friday session to report, as both US and Canadian markets observed the Independence Day holiday on July 3. Thursday's session delivered the week's largest move (unverified): USD/CAD fell roughly 0.285% (unverified) after June payrolls printed 57,000 against a consensus near 115,000. Two forces capped the CAD advance simultaneously: the Trump administration's July 1 announcement that it would not confirm USMCA's continuation at its year-six review — part of the agreement's 16-year sunset structure — reviving trade-policy uncertainty for Canada; and WTI trading in the $67–69 range after OPEC+ approved a further collective output increase effective August. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10 — its fifth consecutive hold — citing weak domestic activity and persistent US trade-policy uncertainty. The BoC Business Outlook Survey is due later today, Sydney time (around midday US Eastern), and has not yet been released. The next BoC rate decision is July 15.

All still ahead — nothing on today's calendar has released yet. This afternoon/evening Sydney time: German Factory Orders m/m at 16:00 (forecast 1.1%, prior -3.8%); Swiss Unemployment Rate at 17:00 (forecast 3.1%, prior 3.1%); Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence at 18:30 (forecast -8.9, prior -13.4); UK Construction PMI at 18:30 (forecast 40.1, prior 38.2); Eurozone Retail Sales m/m and PPI m/m at 19:00; US Final Services PMI at 23:45 (forecast 51.4, prior 51.3). Overnight into Tuesday: US ISM Services PMI just after midnight (high impact; forecast 54.2, prior 54.5), then FOMC member Waller and the BoC Business Outlook Survey both around 1am. Tuesday morning, Sydney time: Japan's Average Cash Earnings y/y (forecast 3.4%, prior 3.5%) and Household Spending y/y (forecast -2.2%, prior -0.5%) around 9:30am, followed by Japan's 30-year bond auction at 13:35.