DXY holds near range floor on the Fourth as jobs-data selling lingers

DXY sits at 100.86, down 0.53% in the July 3 session — the third consecutive failure to sustain above 101.55 across the 14-session range of 100.76–101.55, with the index now 10 basis points above the range floor. Today is July 4; US markets are closed, yields are static across all tenors, and FX trades in holiday-thin liquidity. The July 3 slide follows a brief post-NFP lift on July 2 (+0.23%), a two-session sequence that amounts to a net reversal: the initial employment-data reaction held one session and unwound the next. Gold at $4,187 (+2.93%), silver +4.54%, and European equities (DAX +2.95%, FTSE +1.92%) are absorbing flows that the dollar's rate differential alone is not capturing.

All US Treasury yield changes read zero on the day — 10Y at 4.485%, 5Y at 4.230%, 30Y at 4.985%, 3M at 3.668% — the product of a closed US bond market on Independence Day, not a market signal. The TLT -1.05% figure in the price feed reflects prior-session activity and should not be read as a live duration move. The policy regime stands at a Fed funds target of 3.50–3.75% with markets pricing hike probability. At 3.668%, the 3M yield sits below the upper end of the funds band, consistent with a front end not pricing an imminent further move. The July 3 jobs data shifted rate expectations in a dollar-negative direction; no new US data or Fed communication arrives today.

EUR/USD 1.1440 (+0.54%): drifting in the upper half of its 14-session range of 1.1361–1.1469, with Germany's June final services PMI revised to 48.6 from a 46.8 preliminary — still contraction, materially less bad. USD/JPY 161.34 (-0.74%): consolidating after the July 3 slide from 162.53 to 161.06, attributed in headlines to suspected stealth intervention; Japan wage growth confirmed above 5% for a third consecutive year adds a BoJ normalisation underpinning. USD/CAD 1.4195 (-0.15%): the clear G10 laggard — AUD gained 0.74%, NZD 0.63% — as WTI crude's +0.29% to $68.78 left the loonie's primary commodity channel flat.

The gain mirrors EUR/USD +0.54% and DXY -0.53%; cable is a passive passenger on broad dollar weakness with no sterling-specific cross-rate bid. The June final services PMI confirmed at 48.8 versus a 48.7 preliminary, still in contraction.

No economic data releases or scheduled central bank events appear on today's calendar; the data feed flags a potential parsing limitation and direct verification against primary sources is recommended. US markets are closed for Independence Day, removing the primary source of intraday rate and data catalysts. Treasury yields are static across all tenors by construction, and FX moves today run without a live US counterpart. Japan remains in session but no Ministry of Finance or Bank of Japan calendar items appear in the available data.